Request for information: strong market response provides solid ground to take the next step
Strong market response
155 sites across Belgium
Market response in our request for information process has been particularly strong.
- No less than 90 market parties provided a wealth of data through their questionnaires.
- The questionnaires covered a total of 155 sites across Belgium, roughly 2/3 of which with projections for the hydrogen market and a remarkable 1/3 with projections for the carbon market.
- The volume, quality and representativeness of the data provide solid ground to move to the next step towards the short-term options for first minimum infrastructure enabling decarbonisation.
- For avoidance of doubt, the figures provided in this feedback to the market are not the result of a comprehensive market study for Belgium. The data shows the outcome of the information received during the informal and non-binding market consultation we held as from late January. The data is presented in an aggregated form where necessary in order to safeguard the confidentiality of the information received.
Step-wise approach confirmed
The aggregated data in their configuration over time support our proposed step-wise approach to transform and develop our infrastructure taking into account the rhythm of developments in the market:
- start with local clusters
- develop backbone infrastructure between clusters to allow transfers between them
- progressively ensure interconnections with neighbouring systems
Broadly diversified participant profile
Market response not only has been strong but also shows broad diversification in the participants’ profiles. This indicates that there is a wide stakeholder base in the market ready to engage in the joint effort to shape the carbon neutral future.
- A large part of participants expectedly were industry players with sites connected into our network.
- In addition, there was a clearly marked interest from shippers and other energy players, parties active in the mobility sector and also appliance and technology solution providers. A number of these participants do not have a link to specific sites but are for instance looking into hydrogen production, indicating potentially additional future projects.
Additional geographical areas
In the data consolidation process we had numerous bilateral exchanges with participants to deepen our understanding of market needs.
- Overall response from the market largely confirms the initially identified geographical cluster areas, both for the hydrogen and CO2 markets
- On top the response also reveals additional areas with development potential in the hydrogen and CO2 markets. For these areas we are looking how to integrate their potential into our forward infrastructure planning
You can still complete Requests for information
Please feel free to still complete your Request for information if you shouldn’t have done so or if your internal process is still ongoing. We will be integrating your responses on a rolling basis and keep finetuning our infrastructure options.
Participants in the process usually give a certain range between the low and high cases for their supply or demand quantities. These ranges are reflected in the graph.
Hydrogen supply and demand development as observed through the market response shows an evolution supporting our step-wise approach that takes into account the rhythm of market developments.
Demand and supply evolution
- Overall hydrogen demand in Belgium is already strong as of now.
- Aggregated demand over the 2025-2030 period doubles or even triples and this uptake is linked to several concrete projects among the participants with high maturity today.
- The 2030-2035 period sees another significant uptake, albeit on a less mature basis as participants have limited forward visibility on hydrogen and carbon prices.
- Aggregated supply level evolution shows a similar basic step-wise trend. Across the supply and demand ranges however, there are a number of scenarios indicating the mounting need for additional supply through increased local production and imports.
- Demand and supply balance at cluster level shows great variety across clusters. Additional iterations with participants and further network analyses are required to finetune solutions.
2035 demand breakdown
2035 supply breakdown
The 2035 demand breakdown as shown is the breakdown in the low case. In the high case demand for power generation is significantly larger.
The 2035 supply breakdown as shown is the breakdown in the low case.
In the high case, supply levels are higher from both electrolysis, thermal cracking and waste gasification. Supply from by-product remains at the same level. The share of green hydrogen through electrolysis increases systematically over time.
Participants in the process usually give a certain range between the low and high cases for their carbon capture or re-use quantities. These ranges are reflected in the graph.
Carbon capture development as observed through the market response shows an evolution supporting our step-wise approach that takes into account the rhythm of market developments.
The carbon capture levels identified through the request for information process bring along two main observations:
- Participants consider carbon capture clearly as an absolute part of the solutions on the path to decarbonisation.
- The quantities identified among the participants are huge: c. 20-25 mtpa of CO2 capture compared to an overall CO2 emission level by industry of c. 39 mtpa (2018 figures – climat.be / klimaat.be: see here).
Among the participants there are a number of projects for re-using CO2. Compared to the levels of capture to become available over time, there is still an important potential for development. We consider this to be a calling card for the market to work out forward looking and innovative business cases for re-using CO2 and achieve synergies across industries.
Balancing capture and re-use: export
Considering the gap between the identified levels of carbon capture and re-use, Fluxys has been exploring various alternatives for exporting CO2 both in gaseous and in liquid form enabling carbon capture sources to access permanent storage sites.