Natural gas will continue to be a key component in the future energy mix
The prospects for changes in demand for natural gas in Europe vary considerably depending on the particular standpoints adopted. Some scenarios are based on an unchanged energy policy and predict that any increase in demand for natural gas will be relative. Others are based on specific policy goals seeking to reduce greenhouse gases and enhance energy efficiency and promote the use of renewable energy sources. In both these scenarios, the prospects for a decline in the profile of demand for natural gas are quite different. However, whichever trend emerges, natural gas will continue to be a key component in the future energy mix.
Natural gas is the most environmentally friendly fossil fuel available and natural gas technology offers significant advantages in terms of energy efficiency. Moreover, natural gas is becoming an increasingly significant source of electricity generation in Europe (almost 30%), even in scenarios in which the focus is on using renewable energy sources as far as possible. Given that some renewable energy sources, such as wind power, cannot be used to generate energy consistently, additional provision must be made to ensure that back-up generation capacity is available. To this end, natural gas-fired power stations are the only option when it comes to commissioning facilities relatively quickly.
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Supply: drop in European generation
In terms of supply, Norway is the only country in Europe where there is still room for an increase in natural gas production. Additional natural gas production in Norway would essentially serve to supply the United Kingdom, which has become a net importer of natural gas since 2004-2005 due to the dwindling reserves within the United Kingdom Continental Shelf. In addition, production on small Dutch gas fields has declined and production at the Groningen gas field has reached its limit.
Significant investment in transmission infrastructure required
To respond to the challenges posed by shifting demand for and supply of energy in Europe, greater volumes of natural gas will need to be imported from further afield and all indications are that Russia will be a key player as a leading producer of natural gas for Europe.
With this in mind, several new east-west natural gas pipelines are currently being laid. However, these new supply routes will not lead directly to the heart of Europe's various markets and as such significant investment will be required upstream of these key axes to fund the infrastructure needed to channel the new flows through to end customers.
Europe will also need to continue to diversify is import portfolio with LNG from the Middle East, Africa and quite possibly, albeit to a lesser degree, from Latin America. Numerous projects are currently under way in Europe to construct new LNG terminals or extend existing facilities.
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